One of the inconvenient realities of writing opinionated pieces about the future of technology is that you leave behind a written record by which people can judge your predictions. On April 1, I started writing a paper on the fallacy of the “SaaS apocalypse,” which I submitted on April 20. I used to do macro forecasting professionally in the semiconductor industry, and one lesson that stuck with me was to trust fundamentals over fashionable opinions. That was also the basis for this prediction. So far, I think it is aging reasonably well: since then, software stocks are up about 29%, versus about 17% for the S&P 500.
For details, see The SaaS Apocalypse Fallacy.